Sony Michel fantasy outlook: Start or sit Rams RB in the Divisional round?
]
The Los Angeles Rams passed its Wild Card round test in a big way, pummeling the Arizona Cardinals for a 34-11 victory on Monday. They now face the challenge of heading into the house of the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the Divisional round on Sunday.
Rams running back Sony Michel has been a solid contributor to the offense all season long. We’ll go over his viability as an option within your DraftKings Daily Fantasy linuep this weekend.
Fantasy Football analysis: Rams RB Sony Michel ($5,300)
Michel had 13 carries for 59 rushing yards in the team’s big victory over the Cardinals last Monday, earning DFS users just 5.8 fantasy points in the process. It was his second straight game of recording under six fantasy points.
Fantasy Start/Sit Recommendation
The presence of Cam Akers being back in the linuep has cut into Michel’s numbers as a solo back. With that and the specter of running up against a tough Bucs run defense, it’d be best to sit Michel.
Sony Michel’s DFS value and prop bets for Divisional Round weekend
]
The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means only a handful of games remain in the season — leaving us limited time to find value in fantasy football and NFL betting. As we continue our tour around the Divisional Round while examining individual player values for prop bets and DFS, let’s see if Sony Michel provides value.
Sony Michel’s DFS value vs. Buccaneers
The Rams acted swiftly when Cam Akers went down before the season, acquiring Michel via trade with New England. The Patriots had already declined Michel’s fifth-year option, and he was on his way out of town anyway.
With Darrel Henderson Jr. missing Weeks 12 and 13 due to COVID-19, then spraining his MCL in Week 16, Michel has become a true workhorse back. From Weeks 13-18, Michel averaged 21.5 rushes, 90 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. Additionally, he added 1.7 receptions for 11 yards on 3 targets per contest. Over these six games, Michel was No. 1 in the NFL in attempts (129) and No. 3 in yards (540). Yet, as we all know, his stranglehold on the backfield is gone.
Featured Story
Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em NFL Fantasy Playoffs: Which players will send their teams to the Super Bowl?
Akers saw his first action in Week 18 and proved he was back to full health. The only thing I can compare it to in terms of miraculous recoveries is Adrian Peterson and his ACL in 2015. In their Wild Card game against the Cardinals, it was a clean sweep for Akers, leading Michel in snaps (32 to 24), routes (10 to 8), targets (2 to 0), and carries (17 to 13).
Michel has reverted back to a backup role for the Rams. Based on how the Rams used Akers last season, averaging 24.3 opportunities in his final seven games, there is not a ton of meat left on the bone for Michel, who comes in as the No. 10 priced RB in DFS at $5,300.
The Buccaneers could stifle the Rams’ rushing game on Sunday
Whether it is Akers or Michel on the field, both will find the sledding tough against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay was sixth in total yards allowed per game (109.8) but No. 1 in rushing yards at 63.7. They slipped a bit in rush DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at 12th but were No. 5 in EPA/rush (expected points added). Yet, it’s worth pointing out they have allowed 110.5 yards over their last eight games, showing a possibly chink in their armor.
FanDuel Sportsbook States: NY, AZ, PA, NJ, IA, IL, CO, IN, TN, VA, WV, MI GET THE APP NEW PLAYER BONUS BET $5, WIN $150!
30-1 ODDS ON ANY GAME! BET NOW
The concern for Michel is the lack of usage in the passing game. That has never been his calling card. Even as the premier back, Michel averaged just 1.7 receptions a game. For my money, Michel is not on my radar for DFS. I would pay up for Leonard Fournette ($5,700) or even go with AJ Dillon at $5,100. Not to mention Akers at just $200 more for likely, at minimum, double the touches.
Sony Michel prop bets this weekend
Apparently, I’m not alone in my trepidation around Michel as FanDuel, DraftKings, PointsBet, and Caesars all declined to publish prop bets for him. We will need to check again later to see if they have posted any player props.
Odds are, if they publish any, I will be on the under as I do not see Akers’ role declining. The 17-to-13 carry split of last week is likely as close as it ever will be again. If you want action on the Rams’ backfield, Akers’ rushing prop is set at 48.5, a total I will gladly take the over at -110.
Rams-Bucs snap counts: Weddle vaults Burgess, Akers owns RB split over Michel
]
The Los Angeles Rams had a chance to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pretty comfortably after grabbing a 27-3 lead, but they let Tom Brady and the Bucs back in the game by blowing that cushion. While it wasn’t their best performance of the season, the Rams did show some resilience and mental strength to weather the storm of Tampa Bay’s comeback in order to still win the game.
They didn’t go terribly deep on offense with the rotation of players they used, nor did they use many backups on defense, either. Looking at the snap counts, you can see how the playing time broke down, and there were a couple of surprises.
In just his second game out of retirement, Eric Weddle played 47 more snaps than Terrell Burgess. Cam Akers is also very clearly the No. 1 running back, playing four times the snaps that Sony Michel did.
Darrell Henderson designated for return from I.R., won’t play Sunday vs. Buccaneers
]
Friday update: Even though Henderson has been designated to return, it looks like he’s not going to play Sunday per Rams head coach Sean McVay.
Sean McVay said Ernest Jones is probably a week away from returning and will not play Sunday vs. Bucs, nor will Sebastian Joseph-Day, Darrell Henderson Jr. or Robert Rochell.
OL Andrew Whitworth and S Taylor Rapp will be OUT for Sunday’s game against Bucs. — Stu Jackson (@StuJRams) January 21, 2022
Los Angeles Rams running back Darrell Henderson was officially designated to return from injured reserve on Friday. He is eligible to return this weekend for Sunday’s Divisional round matchup at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the team has to activate him off IR by 4 p.m. ET on Saturday. The Rams tailback was placed on IR with an MCL injury on December 27 and the hope was he’d be back for the postseason.
The third-year running back out of Memphis had appeared in 12 games this season, running for a career-high 688 rushing yards and five touchdowns on the ground. He also added three receiving touchdowns to his stat line as well.
Henderson last appeared in the team’s Week 16 victory over the Vikings, where he had one carry for 17 yards before exiting with the knee injury. Sony Michel has been holding down the fort in the run game and the team just got Cam Akers back from an Achilles injury.
Fantasy football implications
Given the return of Akers to join Michel, chances are Henderson won’t be officially activated for Sunday’s game. From a fantasy perspective, it’d be wise to still go with Michel or Akers.
University of Georgia Athletics
]
Following the NFL’s Divisional Playoffs, there are 10 Georgia alums remaining – three each for the Los Angeles Rams, the Kansas City Chiefs, and the Cincinnati Bengals, and one for the San Francisco 49ers.The Chiefs will entertain Cincinnati in the AFC Championship at 3 p.m. Sunday, followed by the 49ers at Los Angeles at 6:30 p.m. for the NFC Championship.The Bulldogs have had at least one player on a Super Bowl roster for 20 straight seasons, the longest current national streak.How the Bulldogs fared in the Divisional Playoffs:Floyd posted four tackles, including a sack, for the Rams.Michel had a 4-yard rush and two catches for minus-4 yards for Los Angeles.Stafford went 28-of-38 for 366 yards and two touchdowns, including a 70-yarder, for the Rams. His 44-yard pass in the final 30 seconds set up the game-winning field goal as time expired. Stafford also rushed four times for six yards and a touchdown.Baker recorded one tackle for the Chiefs.Hardman rushed twice for 31 yards and a touchdown, and he caught a 26-yard pass to set up the game-winning score in overtime for Kansas City.Herring has spent the entire season on the Chiefs’ non-football injury reserve list.McKenzie returned a kickoff for 22 yards, rushed three times for 15 yards, and caught a 3-yard pass for Buffalo.Gaillard has spent the entire season on Cincinnati’s practice squad.Hill protected on five placement kicks – four field goals, including the game-winner as time expired, and an extra point – for the Bengals.Holyfield has been on Cincinnati’s practice squad all year.Jones logged all 53 snaps at center and helped Tennessee roll up 353 total yards.Rice ended the year on the Titans’ injured reserve list with an ankle injury.Woerner appeared on 21 offensive and 20 special teams plays for San Francisco. He was targeted once and was on the field when the 49ers blocked a punt for their lone touchdown and when they converted the game-winning field goal as time expired.Stokes played all 54 snaps on defense for Green Bay, posting four tackles.