Ukraine: Joe Biden says US could sanction Vladimir Putin
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US President Joe Biden said Tuesday that Washington could hit Russian President Putin with personal sanctions in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
When asked by a reporter if he could possibly see himself personally sanctioning Putin if there was an invasion, Biden answered: “Yes. I would see that.”
The comments came as Russian combat troops massing around Ukraine launched new exercises.
What Biden said about a possible invasion of Ukraine
A Russian incursion into Ukraine could become the “largest invasion” since World War II, Biden said. “It would change the world.''
The Pentagon said Monday that 8,500 US troops had been placed on “heightened alert.”
Biden said that the US had a “sacred obligation” to NATO allies, and if there was continued buildup or a move made by Russia, then troop numbers could be reinforced.
At the same time, Biden told reporters he has “no intention” of dispatching US troops to Ukraine, and spoke of severe economic consequences, depending on what Putin decided to do.
Watch video 01:41 Ukraine calls for calm as US puts troops on higher alert
Energy diversion talks
Reuters news agency reported that the US is in talks with leading energy-producing countries over a possible diversion of supplies, if Russia ever cut supply to Europe.
While no specific countries or companies were mentioned, senior officials in the Biden administration were reported to have been in discussions to ensure the supply of energy to Europe through the winter months.
This included countries and companies selling liquefied natural gas (LNG).
“We’ve been working to identify additional volumes of non-Russian natural gas from various areas of the world; from North Africa and the Middle East to Asia and the United States,” a senior official said on condition of anonymity.
The White House meanwhile has confirmed that Qatar’s ruling emir will hold talks with Biden at the end of the month.
According to a White House statement, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani would be meeting the US president to discuss a range of global issues including “ensuring the stability of global energy supplies.”
Qatar ranks among the world’s top five producer’s of LNG.
Watch video 02:52 Relying on Russia’s natural gas poses ever greater problems for EU
European leaders seek dialogue
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron met in Berlin on Tuesday. The two leaders see diplomacy as a way forward in the Ukraine-Russia crisis, but have also warned of “severe consequences” should there be a Russian invasion.
Scholz called on Russia to pursue “clear steps” to de-escalate tensions but added: “If there is aggression, there will be retaliation and the cost will be very high.”
Representatives from Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France will meet in Paris tor talks on Wednesday in what’s known as the Normandy format, a development which was praised by Scholz.
The French president also said he would hold phone talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, as part of a “demanding dialogue” with the Kremlin.
Watch video 00:36 Germany’s Scholz calls on Russia to de-escalate tensions
What is the latest situation in Ukraine?
Western countries are concerned that Russia may attack its neighbor. Officials say as many as 100,000 Russian troops have gathered near the border with Ukraine.
The US and the UK have pulled families of diplomats out of Kyiv.
Moscow denies plans to invade. It blames the West for the tension and has put forward a list of demands, including a guarantee that Ukraine never join NATO and that the military alliance stops any eastward expansion.
NATO said on Monday it wasdispatching additional fighter jets and ships to Eastern Europe amid the current tension.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tried to allay fears, telling people not to panic. “We are strong enough to keep everything under control and derail any attempts at destabilization,’’ Zelenskyy said in a televised address.
Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that there weren’t any immediate signs to suggest an invasion was imminent.
Watch video 00:41 Muscovites react to prospect of Russia-Ukraine war
kb/rt (AFP, dpa, Reuters)
Fiona Hill: For Russia’s President Putin, It’s Not Just About Ukraine - The New York Times
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For weeks, American officials have huddled to make sense of the official documents with Russia’s demands and the contradictory commentary, pondered how to deter Mr. Putin in Ukraine and scrambled to talk on his timeline.
All the while, Mr. Putin and his proxies have ratcheted up their statements. Kremlin officials have not just challenged the legitimacy of America’s position in Europe, they have raised questions about America’s bases in Japan and its role in the Asia-Pacific region. They have also intimated that they may ship hypersonic missiles to America’s back door in Cuba and Venezuela to revive what the Russians call the Caribbean Crisis of the 1960s.
Mr. Putin is a master of coercive inducement. He manufactures a crisis in such a way that he can win no matter what anyone else does. Threats and promises are essentially one and the same. Mr. Putin can invade Ukraine yet again, or he can leave things where they are and just consolidate the territory Russia effectively controls in Crimea and Donbas. He can stir up trouble in Japan and send hypersonic missiles to Cuba and Venezuela, or not, if things go his way in Europe.
Mr. Putin plays a longer, strategic game and knows how to prevail in the tactical scrum. He has the United States right where he wants it. His posturing and threats have set the agenda in European security debates, and have drawn our full attention. Unlike President Biden, Mr. Putin doesn’t have to worry about midterm elections or pushback from his own party or the opposition. Mr. Putin has no concerns about bad press or poor poll ratings. He isn’t part of a political party and he has crushed the Russian opposition. The Kremlin has largely silenced the local, independent press. Mr. Putin is up for re-election in 2024, but his only viable opponent, Aleksei Navalny, is locked in a penal colony outside of Moscow.
So Mr. Putin can act as he chooses, when he chooses. Barring ill health, the United States will have to contend with him for years to come. Right now, all signs indicate that Mr. Putin will lock the United States into an endless tactical game, take more chunks out of Ukraine and exploit all the frictions and fractures in NATO and the European Union. Getting out of the current crisis requires acting, not reacting. The United States needs to shape the diplomatic response and engage Russia on the West’s terms, not just Moscow’s.
To be sure, Russia does have some legitimate security concerns, and European security arrangements could certainly do with fresh thinking and refurbishment after 30 years. There is plenty for Washington and Moscow to discuss on the conventional and nuclear forces as well as in the cyber domain and on other fronts. But a further Russian invasion of Ukraine and Ukraine’s dismemberment and neutralization cannot be an issue for U.S.-Russian negotiation nor a line item in European security. Ultimately, the United States needs to show Mr. Putin that he will face global resistance and Mr. Putin’s aggression will put Russia’s political and economic relationships at risk far beyond Europe.
Contrary to Mr. Putin’s premise in 2008 that Ukraine is “not a real country,” Ukraine has been a full-fledged member of the United Nations since 1991. Another Russian assault would challenge the entire U.N. system and imperil the arrangements that have guaranteed member states’ sovereignty since World War II — akin to the Iraq invasion of Kuwait in 1990, but on an even bigger scale. The United States and its allies, and Ukraine itself, should take this issue to the United Nations and put it before the General Assembly as well as the Security Council. Even if Russia blocks a resolution, the future of Ukraine merits a global response. The United States should also raise concerns in other regional institutions. Why is Russia trying to take its disputes in Europe to Asia and the Western Hemisphere? What does Ukraine have to do with Japan, or Cuba and Venezuela?
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Vladimir Putin backs China over ‘politicization’ of Beijing Olympics
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Russia and China oppose “the politicization of sport and demonstrative boycotts” ahead of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday in an address to his country’s athletes.
The U.S. is among several countries which have said they will not send politicians or other representatives to next month’s Games in a so-called diplomatic boycott, citing concerns over human rights in China. Putin plans to attend the Olympics and to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
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“I consider the main goal of these competitions to attract as many citizens as possible to sport and the strengthening of friendship between peoples. These approaches are shared by the organizers of the upcoming Games, our Chinese friends,” Putin said.
“Together we stand against the politicization of sport and demonstrative boycotts. We support the traditional Olympic values, above all, equality and fairness.”
Instead of the usual ceremony in Moscow before Russian teams depart to the Olympics, Putin addressed athletes by video link as they gathered at training centers across the country.
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“I ask you and all of your teammates to rigorously observe all requirements of the organizing committee for the Games and to strictly follow all medical instructions,” he said.
As at last year’s Summer Olympics in Tokyo, Russians will be competing without their country’s name or flag at the Beijing Games in the fallout from years-long doping disputes. The team will be known as “ROC”, short for Russian Olympic Committee.
Russia could invade Ukraine, but Putin might be afraid of the backlash, says ex-U.S. ambassador
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Many people believe that Vladimir Putin could invade Ukraine, but the Russian president may be afraid of the consequences that Washington has warned about, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine said Monday. The notion that Russia may escalate the situation in Ukraine is “reasonable” given the thousands of troops at the border and the constant aggression from Moscow, said John Herbst, who is now senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. The United States and its allies are concerned that Russia will attack Ukraine, possibly in the coming weeks, though Moscow says it has no plans to invade the Eastern European country. U.S. President Joe Biden’s framework to push back against Russia consists of sending weapons to Ukraine, moving NATO forces along Russia’s border and punishing sanctions if an invasion happens. “My personal view is that’s a possibility, but I think [Putin] is afraid of the response,” Herbst told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.
Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during an expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board in Moscow, Russia December 21, 2021. Mikhail Tereshchenko | Reuters
“If Putin decides that, in fact, the Biden response is more bluff than reality, Russian troops may wind up in large numbers in Ukraine, beyond the numbers that are currently in Donbas and in Crimea,” he said. “I suspect that at a minimum, this confrontation will play out for six or eight weeks.” Herbst said the United States and its allies need to push back hard against Russia since appeasement did not work in the past when Moscow invaded Georgia and Crimea and “suffered almost no consequences.” The U.S. plan now is “reasonable,” but not sufficiently active, he said. “It needs to be stronger and faster, and we need to do it in conjunction with our allies.”
Possible ramifications
Additionally, Herbst said there’s “almost no chance of Russia winning” a long-term war with Ukraine. That’s because a large majority of Ukrainians “despise the Kremlin” for its aggression and will fight back. Moscow’s military is much stronger, but in the long run, it will be difficult for Russia to hold on to cities it has seized, he predicted. Russia’s overall geopolitical position will also worsen if it invades Ukraine, he added. “If Russia sends those troops into Ukraine, the chances of Sweden or Finland joining NATO go way up,” he said, adding that Putin’s actions have made NATO membership a “serious question” for the two countries.