AJ Dillon DFS Value, Prop Bets: Dillon is one of the best values for the Divisional Round

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The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means only a handful of games remain in the season — leaving us limited time to find value in fantasy football and NFL betting. As we continue our tour around the Divisional Round to examine individual player values for prop bets and DFS, let’s see what AJ Dillon’s value is for this weekend.

AJ Dillon’s DFS value vs. 49ers

Most NFL players look like Marvel characters when they’re in shorts in the middle of summer. Then, the right picture comes out, and the whole internet goes ablaze. Enter Dillon. The Quad Father has been all the talk since he lit up the pre-draft testing coming out of Boston College. This season, he became the running back many thought he could have been, all while pulling reps away from Aaron Jones — something very few RBs are good enough to do.

Playing in 17 games (two starts), Dillon rushed 187 times (48.7% share) for 803 yards and 5 touchdowns. That’s more carries (171), yards (799), and touchdowns than Jones (4) had in 2021. Over the back half of the season, Dillon was the No. 1 option on the ground. In Week 10, Jones suffered a knee injury that has stuck him over the back half of the season. Since then, Dillon is No. 13 in the NFL in carries, averaging 13.8 per game, with 56 yards and 22.4 receiving yards on 2.6 targets.

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He is the RB12 in PPR formats, averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game. Jones averaged 13.5 per game over this stretch as he took a backseat on the ground. Dillon sees his most utilization in the red zone, seeing a team-high 39 carries, 11th in the NFL — tied with Nick Chubb and Joe Mixon.

At $5,100, Dillon is a great value in DFS, coming in as the No. 12 priced RB, even behind Ronald Jones, D’Onta Foreman, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. At $1,700 less than Jones, Dillon is a great cost savings on DraftKings. The issue is the matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers are a difficult matchup for Dillon

The 49ers are No. 7 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) as a unit but are No. 2 in run DVOA and EPA/rush (Expected Points Added per rush). They are also No. 1 over the last four weeks in fantasy points allowed to the position at just 13.73 per game. The 49ers have allowed only one RB to score 10+ since Week 13 (including the playoffs). Of the 68 rushes faced in the red zone this season, they are No. 5 in successful play rate per Sharp Football.

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With that said, the 49ers come into the Divisional Round a bit banged up. Nick Bosa was forced out of last week’s game due to a concussion, and LB Fred Warner was removed in the fourth quarter due to an ankle injury. It is expected both players will suit up but needs to be monitored. Despite it being the teeth of the defense, Green Bay will need to establish a run game. I would not be surprised if Dillon outscores Jones this week, and of the two, I prefer Dillon at his DFS price point.

AJ Dillon prop bets this weekend

Dillon’s prop bets are interesting, and your odds will differ depending on what book you use. On FanDuel, Dillon is currently set at 42.5 rushing yards (-114). But on DraftKings, you can get him at 40.5 at -110. On Points Bet, the over of 45.5 pays at +100.

Interestingly, there is no receiving yardage prop for Dillion. If I were to take a prop bet on Dillon, I would take the over, even at the 45.5.

My favorite prop bet on Dillon would be an anytime touchdown prop. He is +100 on DraftKings, +115 on FanDuel, and +125 on Points Bet to score. Even if Jones operates as the RB1, I love the utilization inside the red zone and his prepotency to always fall forward.

Green Bay at -5.5 is already one of my top plays of the weekend, and I am all in on Dillon at his anytime TD prop bet.

Packers RB AJ Dillon update; plus, more NFL news from Saturday’s Divisional Round games

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The Green Bay Packers’ defense will be operating at close to full strength for Saturday’s Divisional Round game against the 49ers.

The team announced cornerback Jaire Alexander will be active after missing over two months of action, providing a big boost to a secondary anchored by mid-season revelation Rasul Douglas in recent weeks.

Alexander, who was activated from injured reserve on Jan. 7, logged a week of limited practices and carried a questionable designation into the weekend. he has not played since Week 4 because of a shoulder injury.

Green Bay is also expected to welcome linebacker Za’Darius Smith back into the fold after losing him to a back injury following Week 1. Smith and fellow LB Whitney Mercilus (torn bicep) were activated from IR on Friday.

Notably missing for Green Bay’s highly-anticipated clash with San Francisco will be left tackle David Bakhtiari, who was listed along with receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling among the team’s five inactives.

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Bengals 19, Titans 16

NASHVILLE — The Cincinnati Bengals last week broke their 31-year playoff drought, and with a young, explosive offense, seemed like this year’s dark horse contender.

And now they officially are. The No. 4-seeded Bengals overcame nine sacks and six penalties to shock the top-seeded Tennessee Titans, 19-16, when rookie kicker Evan McPherson kicked his fourth and final field goal Saturday, a 52-yarder that split the uprights as time expired.

The Bengals, who had three interceptions of their own, will face the winner of the Chiefs-Bills game on Sunday, and will travel to either Kansas City or Buffalo.

“We don’t know what we don’t know,” quarterback Joe Burrow said of the team’s youthfulness, an acknowledgment that he will have less experience no matter who his team faces in the A.F.C. championship game next week, whether his counterpart is Patrick Mahomes, 26, of Kansas City or Josh Allen, 25, of Buffalo. Burrow, 25, is in just his second N.F.L. season, an experience gap that separates him from his peers.

“Tomorrow morning might be a different story, but right now, I feel great,” Burrow said.

Despite the many hits, Burrow threw for 348 yards on 28 of 37 passing with one interception. His counterpart on Saturday, Ryan Tannehill, suffered just one sack, but was doomed by three interceptions.

Statistically, the game made no sense. Burrow was fabulous when he had time to spot his fleet-footed receivers, completing 28 of 37 passes for 348 yards. The Titans blanketed Ja’Marr Chase, who still managed to haul in five passes for 109 yards. Receiver Tee Higgins and tight end C.J. Uzomah each had seven receptions.

Burrow, though, was sacked repeatedly as the Titans defense ran in, around and through the Bengals’ porous offensive line. Tennessee defensive end Jeffery Simmons led the charge with three sacks of Burrow.

“That one was really, really hard,” Burrow said of the pressure he faced throughout the game.

Image Jeffery Simmons, wearing No. 98, had two sacks for Tennessee going into the fourth quarter and finished with three total. Credit… Christopher Hanewinckel/USA Today Sports, via Reuters

The Titans became the fifth team to notch nine sacks in playoff game, joining Kansas City (1994), the Browns (1987), the 49ers (1985) and Bills (1967).

It was the Bengals defense, though, that ultimately saved the day, intercepting Tannehill on the Titans’ first and last plays of the game, and once in between. The final pick was most important as it came with just 20 seconds remaining.

On a drive that began with 2:43 left in the game, Tannehill slowly marched the Titans down the field trying to get the team in field goal position. Then, on the fifth play of the series, on third-and-5 from the Titan’ 40-yard line, Tannehill’s pass was tipped by cornerback Eli Apple and hauled in by linebacker Logan Wilson.

Burrow, who had a breakout season throwing for more than 4,600 yards, got another chance to add to his résumé by stealing a second playoff win. From the Bengals’ 47-yard line, Burrow quickly hit Chase to move the ball to the Titans’ 35 and into decent field goal position.

The Bengals drained a few more seconds off the clock before McPherson connected on the game-winner.

Had Cincinnati’s offensive line been more successful, the Bengals may have won the game easily as the team held the ball for about seven minutes longer than the Titans over the course of thee night, despite the return of Tennessee’s stellar running back Derrick Henry from an absence of more than two months.

Indeed, the game got off to an auspicious start for the Bengals. On the first play from scrimmage, Cincinnati safety Jessie Bates intercepted Tannehill. With great field position, the Bengals looked poised to strike. But in a pattern that defined the game, Burrow was sacked on the first play from scrimmage. A delay-of-game penalty stalled the promising drive and the Bengals settled for a field goal, not a touchdown.

Cincinnati kicked three of them in the first half, and went into the locker room ahead, 9-6.

The Titans, meanwhile, looked rusty after a bye week. Tannehill missed receivers, was sacked, rushed throws, and Henry — who finished with 62 yards on 20 carries — didn’t seem to help much.

The Titans engineered a solid drive midway through the second quarter. Tannehill connected with his two best receivers, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. On first-and-goal, Henry lined up in the wildcat, took the snap and scored, to the delight of the home crowd that had been calling his name.

Henry and the Titans failed to score on a 2-point attempt, however. In the end, those 2 extra points would not have mattered because the Bengals’ final field goal was just enough.

NFL Divisional Saturday Top Plays: 49ers stun Packers, Bengals down Titans

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National Football League NFL Divisional Saturday Top Plays: 49ers stun Packers, Bengals down Titans just in share facebook twitter reddit link

For the first time since the 2010 season, both No. 1 seeds lost their NFL playoff openers in the divisional round.

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals ventured to Tennessee and shocked the top-seeded Titans on a field goal in the final seconds, despite the return of star running back Derrick Henry.

And in the nightcap, the hard-nosed San Francisco 49ers turned the momentum with a blocked punt for a touchdown and pulled off a huge comeback victory over Aaron Rodgers and top-seeded Green Bay.

Here are the top plays from Saturday:

San Francisco 49ers 13, Green Bay Packers 10

That was easy

Green Bay wasted little time getting things going, opening with a 10-play, 69-yard drive capped by AJ Dillon’s burst up the middle for six.

Punched free!

Fred Warner came away with a momentum-shifting play, poking the ball loose from GB’s mitts, and giving his team a critical turnover.

Tight end U

George Kittle placed his imprint on the game near the close of the second half, coming away with a nimble one-handed grab on the sideline to spark San Francisco’s first meaningful drive of the game.

A critical mistake from Jimmy Garoppolo, though, thwarted the Niners’ attempt for points later in the drive. He threw an untimely interception to Adrian Amos.

Blocked!

The Packers had a chance to extend their lead before halftime, but San Francisco blocked Mason Crosby’s field-goal attempt.

Do not pass “Go”

Down 10-3 and with the final quarter halfway through, the 49ers went for a crucial 4th-and-1. But the Packers’ defense proved too dominant.

Special teams stunner

After San Francisco forced a three-and-out by the Packers, their special teams defense pulled off an incredible blocked punt and rookie safety Talanoa Hufanga returned it for a touchdown. And just like that, we had a tie game.

Gould-en

After the Niners charged down the field in the final minutes of regulation, Robbie Gould was called on to seal a stunning comeback for the Niners and a trip to the NFC Championship Game. Gould nailed a 45-yard field-goal attempt in front of a stunned Green Bay crowd. San Francisco will play at either Tampa Bay or the L.A. Rams for the right to go to Super Bowl LVI.

Cincinnati Bengals 19, Tennessee Titans 16

Surprise!

Cincinnati came away with a game-changing interception on the game’s very first play.

Jesse Bates III stepped in front of a Ryan Tannehill pass to give the Bengals the ball in Tennessee territory.

The King is back

Henry didn’t waste much time doing what he does best: scoring touchdowns.

He took the snap in a wildcat formation and powered in to cap a nine-play, 84-yard drive.

At the half, Cincy led 9-6 on the back of three field goals from Evan McPherson.

Mix ’em up!

The Bengals finally found the end zone in the third quarter, courtesy of a well-executed run from Joe Mixon.

Sky-high!

Tennessee bounced back comfortably with a commendable drive following Cincy’s score, but the Bengals’ defense came away with a huge takeaway to quell the Titans’ momentum.

Mike Hilton went airborne to swat away a Tannehill screen attempt, plucking the ball out of the air following his deflection for the team’s second INT.

Plucked!

We’ve got another INT, this time from the Titans’ side of things. Amani Hooker scraped the pigskin off of the ground for Tennessee’s first turnover.

One hand for safety

The Titans capitalized on the takeaway with a crucial score of their own. AJ Brown made a dazzling one-handed grab in double-coverage to tie things at 16.

Third times the charm!

Cincy picked off Tannehill for the third time, collecting its biggest turnover yet with 20 seconds remaining. Logan Wilson made the play of the day, and his team’s season, to give the Bengals the ball in a massive spot.

Walk-off!

The squad got into decent field position for a game-winning field goal try. Evan McPherson, the team’s rookie kicker, split the uprights on a 52-yarder with three seconds left to send his Bengals into the next round with a stunning 19-16 upset.

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Gould’s FG on final play gives 49ers 13-10 upset of Packers

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San Francisco won by overcoming a brutal start from its offense. The 49ers had minus-10 yards in their first four series, three of which included third-down sacks. It was the first time the 49ers had opened a game with four straight three-and-outs since a 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sept. 27, 2009.