NFL divisional round predictions for Saturday games: Take one favorite and one underdog
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Joe Burrow looked like the real deal in his playoff debut. In a 26-19 victory over the Raiders, he threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers, skillfully directing the Bengals past a wily, veteran opponent.
Burrow was fortunate to have played that game at home in front of friendly fans and in familiar conditions. Other young quarterbacks didn’t have quite the same experience. Rookie Mac Jones suffered through a nightmare in Orchard Park as the Patriots were trounced by the Bills, 47-17. Jalen Hurts of the Eagles was down 31-0 before Philadelphia finally scored in the fourth quarter of a 31-15 loss at Tampa Bay. Even Kyler Murray, a former Rookie of the Year and two-time Pro Bowler, was destroyed in his first road postseason game, fueling a 34-11 loss to the Rams with a ridiculous pick six.
In fact, in the wild-card round, home teams went 5-1 both straight up and against the spread. The only road team to have success, the 49ers, have a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo who once came up a few yards short of winning a Super Bowl. This isn’t to say that road teams can’t win in the playoffs or that you’d be foolish to pick them. I do support some visitors in this weekend’s divisional round, as you’ll see. But the Bengals aren’t one of those teams, as I believe Burrow will have a rough time in Nashville on Saturday in his first road postseason foray.
The Titans come in as the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the only team that earned a coveted bye in the conference. Their regular-season bye came after an unfathomable home loss to Houston and a blowout loss at New England. After that, Tennessee went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS to close out the season.
Mike Vrabel Getty Images
By going 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS at home, including back-to-back wins against the Bills and Chiefs, Tennessee was able to reach this lofty perch despite missing Derrick Henry for much of the season. His return allows Ryan Tannehill to crank up the play-action passing game and also gives coach Mike Vrabel a chance to make this a more physical game against a Cincinnati team that’s known more for its finesse and explosiveness.
I also give Vrabel a coaching edge over the Bengals’ Zac Taylor. Vrabel is 2-2 in his playoff coaching career, one of the wins an epic takedown of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in Foxborough. Vrabel also played in 20 postseason games, so this is definitely his time of year.
The picks: Titans -3.5 and Under 47.5.
Titans, 26-20
San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS; Over 46.5
The first two things you look at in this matchup are the 49ers’ injuries and the weather. At midweek it is looking as if DE Nick Bosa (concussion) and LB Fred Warner (leg) will be ready to play for the 49ers after going down in the wild-card victory over the Cowboys. As for the forecast, it’ll be freezing (4 degrees, -1 RealFeel) but dry with light to moderate winds at Lambeau Field on Saturday night. Pros like Garoppolo and particularly Aaron Rodgers shouldn’t be hindered much by these conditions.
Deebo Samuel Getty Images
Similar to the Titans, the bye is a nice advantage for the Packers, and you certainly have to give them the edge to at least survive and advance. But the near-touchdown point spread makes this a real challenge to predict. The Packers won the regular-season meeting, 30-28, in Santa Clara, Calif., as 3.5-point underdogs in Week 3. That was the start of a four-game skid for the 49ers that nearly doomed their season. But the team in now on an 8-2 roll both SU and ATS.
Kyle Shanahan created a monster with Deebo Samuel operating out of the backfield, and the coach is a master at calling the right play at the right time. There are enough cracks in Green Bay’s defense to allow the 49ers to go score-for-score with Rodgers.
Packers, 28-24
Last week: 4-2 sides, 4-2 Over/Unders
Lock of the week: Bills (Locks 11-7 in 2021)
NFL Divisional Saturday Top Plays: 49ers stun Packers, Bengals down Titans
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National Football League NFL Divisional Saturday Top Plays: 49ers stun Packers, Bengals down Titans 8 hours ago share facebook twitter reddit link
For the first time since the 2010 season, both No. 1 seeds lost their NFL playoff openers in the divisional round.
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals ventured to Tennessee and shocked the top-seeded Titans on a field goal in the final seconds, despite the return of star running back Derrick Henry.
And in the nightcap, the hard-nosed San Francisco 49ers turned the momentum with a blocked punt for a touchdown and pulled off a huge comeback victory over Aaron Rodgers and top-seeded Green Bay.
Here are the top plays from Saturday:
San Francisco 49ers 13, Green Bay Packers 10
That was easy
Green Bay wasted little time getting things going, opening with a 10-play, 69-yard drive capped by AJ Dillon’s burst up the middle for six.
Punched free!
Fred Warner came away with a momentum-shifting play, poking the ball loose from GB’s mitts, and giving his team a critical turnover.
Tight end U
George Kittle placed his imprint on the game near the close of the second half, coming away with a nimble one-handed grab on the sideline to spark San Francisco’s first meaningful drive of the game.
A critical mistake from Jimmy Garoppolo, though, thwarted the Niners’ attempt for points later in the drive. He threw an untimely interception to Adrian Amos.
Blocked!
The Packers had a chance to extend their lead before halftime, but San Francisco blocked Mason Crosby’s field-goal attempt.
Do not pass “Go”
Down 10-3 and with the final quarter halfway through, the 49ers went for a crucial 4th-and-1. But the Packers’ defense proved too dominant.
Special teams stunner
After San Francisco forced a three-and-out by the Packers, their special teams defense pulled off an incredible blocked punt and rookie safety Talanoa Hufanga returned it for a touchdown. And just like that, we had a tie game.
Gould-en
After the Niners charged down the field in the final minutes of regulation, Robbie Gould was called on to seal a stunning comeback for the Niners and a trip to the NFC Championship Game. Gould nailed a 45-yard field-goal attempt in front of a stunned Green Bay crowd. San Francisco will play at either Tampa Bay or the L.A. Rams for the right to go to Super Bowl LVI.
Cincinnati Bengals 19, Tennessee Titans 16
Surprise!
Cincinnati came away with a game-changing interception on the game’s very first play.
Jesse Bates III stepped in front of a Ryan Tannehill pass to give the Bengals the ball in Tennessee territory.
The King is back
Henry didn’t waste much time doing what he does best: scoring touchdowns.
He took the snap in a wildcat formation and powered in to cap a nine-play, 84-yard drive.
At the half, Cincy led 9-6 on the back of three field goals from Evan McPherson.
Mix ’em up!
The Bengals finally found the end zone in the third quarter, courtesy of a well-executed run from Joe Mixon.
Sky-high!
Tennessee bounced back comfortably with a commendable drive following Cincy’s score, but the Bengals’ defense came away with a huge takeaway to quell the Titans’ momentum.
Mike Hilton went airborne to swat away a Tannehill screen attempt, plucking the ball out of the air following his deflection for the team’s second INT.
Plucked!
We’ve got another INT, this time from the Titans’ side of things. Amani Hooker scraped the pigskin off of the ground for Tennessee’s first turnover.
One hand for safety
The Titans capitalized on the takeaway with a crucial score of their own. AJ Brown made a dazzling one-handed grab in double-coverage to tie things at 16.
Third times the charm!
Cincy picked off Tannehill for the third time, collecting its biggest turnover yet with 20 seconds remaining. Logan Wilson made the play of the day, and his team’s season, to give the Bengals the ball in a massive spot.
Walk-off!
The squad got into decent field position for a game-winning field goal try. Evan McPherson, the team’s rookie kicker, split the uprights on a 52-yarder with three seconds left to send his Bengals into the next round with a stunning 19-16 upset.
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Bosse rolls past Titans
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N.F.L. Receivers Are Showcasing a Throwback Skill: Blocking
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N.F.L. wide receivers’ job descriptions are straightforward: Most of it is in the title.
They normally align themselves away from the congestion of their bulkier teammates and opponents — wide — and receive the ball, preferably in the end zone.
Their hands are essential to the latter function, a reason many would not want to risk their mitts blocking defenders to assist on a run play.
The Tennessee Titans’ receiver A.J. Brown thinks otherwise.
In Week 2 against the Seattle Seahawks, Brown caught only three of his nine targets, four of which he dropped. While his production slipped, his teammates, the star running back Derrick Henry and receiver Julio Jones, whom the Titans traded for last off-season, shined, posting 365 yards combined from scrimmage. Henry rushed for three touchdowns.
Bengals Tight End C.J. Uzomah Has New Motto For Team After Win Over Titans
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All season long, Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah has repeated the same message for Cincinnati’s 2021-22 outlook: Why not us?
Uzomah first repeated the phrase publicly on Aug. 2 during training camp, and has leaned on that mindset in the months leading up to the Bengals’ thrilling 19–16 win over the Titans to give the franchise its first-ever road playoff win. After the win, Uzomah had a different message for Bengals fans:
“We changed it from ‘Why not us?’ to ‘It is us!’” Uzomah said. “We’re those boys, baby! Next round, trying to win us a championship—we’re not done.”
The Bengals held a 16–6 lead late in the third quarter before the Titans struck quickly, tying the score in under two minutes of game time. A slog of a fourth quarter saw neither offense break through until Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill was intercepted by Logan Wilson at midfield. Cincinnati advanced to the Tennessee 34-yard line, setting up a walk-off 52-yard field goal by Evan McPherson.
Uzomah had 71 receiving yards on a team-high seven receptions on Saturday, a strong follow-up to his six-catch, 64-yard game against the Raiders in the wild-card round.
With the Bengals one win away from their first Super Bowl appearance in over three decades, Uzomah’s new motto has a chance to catch on like his old one already has.
“I remember saying it, and it has kind of caught on a little bit and taken over,” Uzomah said. “It’s kind of nice … to me, all this outside noise is just that. We’ve got the pieces to make this run, so why don’t we do it this year? Why not us, in this particular moment, go out, prove everyone wrong, put the city on the map right now and give them something to root for and win.”
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