Forecasting the postseason, including Super Bowl contenders, upset picks and impact players

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It’s playoff time in the NFL, and 14 teams all have a chance to win Super Bowl LVI. It begins this weekend with six wild-card games, before the winners join the Packers and Titans in the divisional round next weekend. Anything can happen in the NFL playoffs. Just ask the Buccaneers, who won the Super Bowl a year ago out of the NFC’s No. 5 seed, winning three road games en route to their title. So how will the next few weeks play out? Will favorites live up to their expectations, or will underdogs pull off some unlikely upsets?

We asked 15 of our NFL analysts for their best prediction for the postseason as a whole and what will happen in the games leading up to the Super Bowl. Which team is best set up to win it all, and who will help them get there? Will it be Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or someone else leading the way in the NFC? And will the Titans hold off plenty of talented AFC teams? Let’s predict this season’s playoffs, starting with how far the AFC’s top-seeded team can go.

Are the Titans the top AFC contender?

Sam Acho, NFL analyst: I’m doubling down on my midseason pick. After three wins to end the regular season and a 12-5 record, Tennessee will reach the Super Bowl. And it won’t be the only No. 1 seed. I got the Packers and Aaron Rodgers meeting the Titans in the biggest game of the year.

Stephania Bell, NFL fantasy analyst: The Titans will win the AFC Championship with a run-heavy offense behind the return of Derrick Henry. For those who might scoff at the notion of a modern offense that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass-play percentage going all the way to the Super Bowl, may I present to you the 2018 Patriots? Yes, they had this guy named Tom Brady, but they also ran the ball 43.1% of the time, fifth in the league that year. The 2021 Titans rushed on a league-high 46.1% of plays, and they did it without Henry for half their games after he suffered a significant foot injury. The return of Henry adds power to their run game and a massive red zone threat on the ground (10 TDs prior to his injury), which will prove to be too much for the Titans’ AFC opponents.

Jeremy Fowler, NFL writer/reporter: Henry will pick up right where he left off and lead the playoffs in rushing. Rarely does a star player have two months to rest his legs before the postseason, especially a 247-pound back with a 2,000-yard season on his résumé. The No. 1 seed Titans battled through injuries and are ready for January football, which means Henry will be touching the ball 20 or more times. I’m not sure I’m ready to put Ryan Tannehill in the Super Bowl, but this team has the ingredients to get there behind Henry, receiver A.J. Brown and an opportunistic defense.

Can the Bills or the Chiefs get back to the AFC Championship Game?

Dan Graziano, NFL writer/reporter: The Bills will play in the Super Bowl. This is a team that has been together for a while now, and they still sting from last year’s AFC Championship Game loss in Kansas City and crave an opportunity to avenge it. The Dec. 26 game in Foxborough, Massachusetts, was a turning point for their season. Running back Devin Singletary told me, “We knew we have what it takes to get where we want to go, but that game just gave us even more confidence and made us more hungry.” The Bills’ run game is in a much better place than it was this time last season, which should help offensive coordinator Brian Daboll avoid the trap of being too one-dimensional. And I don’t think people really appreciate how good their defense is under Leslie Frazier. I know it was the Jets and their season was over (Week 18), but holding another professional football team to 53 total yards of offense in a game is really something. This team is well coached, believes in itself, has the league’s most weather-proof quarterback and has been building toward this for a few years now. I say they cash it in.

Jason Reid, senior writer at The Undefeated: Kansas City will advance to its third consecutive Super Bowl by defeating Tennessee in the AFC Championship Game at Tennessee. A 34-31 road loss to Cincinnati in Week 17 cost Kansas City the conference’s No. 1 seeding and a chance to host the AFC title game for an unprecedented fourth straight season. But there’s still plenty to like about the Chiefs, starting with quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The superstar learned to operate more patiently this season while teams were content to play Cover 2 and rarely blitz him, hoping to avoid giving up the big plays that have defined the historic start to his career. But the Chiefs’ biggest turnaround occurred on defense. Often overmatched during the team’s 3-4 start, Kansas City’s defense provided the foundation to its eight-game winning streak. During that span, the Chiefs allowed the fewest points per game (12.9) and had the most takeaways (21) in the NFL.

play 0:50 Spears: Reid’s coaching this season has been ‘phenomenal’ Marcus Spears lauds Andy Reid for the job he’s done coaching the Chiefs this season.

Seth Walder, analytics writer: The winner of the Bills-Chiefs divisional-round matchup will win the Super Bowl. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), they’re the second- and third-best teams in the league, respectively. The Bills boast the best point differential in the league and the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes at quarterback – either is a great sign for a deep playoff run. And while I’m still a believer in Tampa Bay, and it is FPI’s No. 1 team, the model doesn’t know that of the trio of great wide receivers the Bucs began the season with, only Mike Evans is still healthy and on the roster.

What can we expect out of the Cowboys and Bengals?

Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Cowboys safety Jayron Kearse will be a difference-maker in the playoffs. Dallas has playmakers at all three levels of Dan Quinn’s defense in Demarcus Lawrence, Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs. But don’t forget about Kearse. He’s a long, rangy safety with versatile traits, and in Quinn’s man-heavy system, Kearse is the tight end matchup player. First up for Kearse: the 49ers’ George Kittle.

Mike Clay, NFL analyst: The Cowboys and Bengals will each win multiple playoff games and are legit contenders to represent their conference in the Super Bowl. Dallas is No. 1 in the league in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, fifth in offensive scores and sixth in touchdowns allowed. The Cowboys have one of the league’s deepest and most talented offenses, along with a breakout defense. And the Bengals are playing their best ball of the season, and if they beat the Raiders and things break right, their path to the title game could include a trip to Tennessee in the divisional round and a rematch with a Chiefs squad they defeated while piling up 34 points just two weeks ago. With a solid defense and quarterback Joe Burrow playing at a high level, Cincinnati would have a shot to win all three games.

Eric Moody, fantasy/sports betting writer: The Bengals will reach the Super Bowl. During Weeks 16 and 17, Burrow passed for 971 yards and eight touchdowns, helping Cincinnati to the AFC North title. With positive momentum, a QB who excels under pressure to overcome mediocre offensive line play, an offense that utilizes a trio of talented receivers (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd) to threaten opposing defenses vertically and a defense that can apply consistent pressure with only four linemen, the Bengals have all of the elements needed to contend for the Super Bowl.

Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst: Dallas will go on a run and win at least two – and maybe three – games. The Cowboys are built for the playoffs and have three elite pass-rushers in Lawrence, Parsons and Randy Gregory. If their offensive line is healthy (most notably Tyron Smith), they’ll be good on offense and elite on defense.

Will the Packers live up to the hype?

Doug Kezirian, sports betting analyst: The Packers are the betting favorite for good reason. The NFC once looked like a gauntlet, but the warts have surfaced with inconsistency and injuries. And the AFC is full of questionable contenders. I expect Green Bay to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, as quarterback Aaron Rodgers is still playing the position flawlessly.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: The Packers will hold serve at home this time around, advancing to a Super Bowl championship. This isn’t exactly going out on a limb, but this team feels different from last year’s iteration that marched into the playoffs with grand expectations. With Green Bay’s balanced offense and a defense that could return multiple key starters (including pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith and cornerback Jaire Alexander), count me among those expecting the Pack to play in SoFi stadium in mid-February.

Seth Wickersham, NFL writer/reporter: This is just a hunch, but I’m predicting that this will be the last playoff run for three future Hall of Fame quarterbacks with their current teams. We know that the Steelers’ Ben Roethlisberger will retire. But I think Tom Brady will, too. And finally, Aaron Rodgers will leave Green Bay after another season without reaching the Super Bowl.

play 0:46 Foxworth envisions Aaron Rodgers making a comeback after retirement Domonique Foxworth outlines why he could see Aaron Rodgers retiring soon and then deciding to come back later down the road.

Tom Brady’s Bucs back in the Super Bowl?

Anita Marks, fantasy/sports betting analyst: It will be Bill Belichick vs. Tom Brady in the Super Bowl. The only two wild-card games that I have conviction in are the Bengals over the Raiders and the Chiefs over the Steelers. The remaining matchups are tossups to me, so to steal a phrase from Jalen Rose: Let’s give the people what they want. I think the Patriots are a complete team. They can pound the rock in the fourth quarter on Saturday night against Buffalo, and then they would match up well against the Titans and Chiefs en route to the Super Bowl. And in the NFC, Brady and the Buccaneers could see the Eagles, Rams and Packers in their path to the Super Bowl – and they have the roster to upset Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game.

Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst: Brady will help the Buccaneers become the first back-to-back Super Bowl champions since the Patriots in 2004 and 2005 – who also had Brady at the helm. At 44 years old, he just had arguably one of the best seasons of his career with a league-high 5,316 passing yards and 43 touchdowns. Tampa Bay is riding a three-game winning streak entering the playoffs, and despite not earning the No. 1 seed, Brady has the necessary experience – even in the elements should they see the Packers at Lambeau Field.

Chiefs versus the Steelers, Road to the Super Bowl Begins

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The Kansas City Chiefs finished the season with a 12-5 record and in Week 16 defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 36-10 at home. This record is important for getting to the playoffs and determining the seeding, but now that the playoffs are here, the 12-5 record means nothing. The Kansas City Chiefs and the Pittsburgh Steelers will show up on Sunday at Arrowhead and play for four quarters to determine who moves onto the next round. The statistics through the season have no bearing on the outcome of this game. As simple as it sounds, now until the Super Bowl, it is one game at a time.

The Kansas City Chiefs Will Need to Avoid Making Mistakes

The Chiefs will have a tall task facing a veteran Steelers’ defense. The defense is led by linebacker TJ Watt, who tied Michael Strahan’s NFL sack record with 22.5. The secondary has a veteran’s presence with Minkah Fitzpatrick roaming as the free safety. Kansas City will need to attack fast, and the Chiefs can do that on offense. Patrick Mahomes and the offense will need to play mistake-free football, forcing quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and company to perform. According to ESPN, Roethlisberger said this about playing the Chiefs

“We’re probably 20 point underdogs and we’re going to the No. 1 team, I know they’re not the No. 1 seed but they’ve won the AFC the last two years, arguably the best team in football,” Roethlisberger said. “We don’t have a chance. So let’s just go in and have fun.”

“We don’t have a chance, so let’s just go in and have fun.” —Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers’ playoff game vs. the Chiefs (via @steelers) pic.twitter.com/ajZJkG0PSk — SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) January 12, 2022

The Kansas City Chiefs Will Need to Play Good Defense

The Chiefs’ defense has sputtered as of late, but ideally, this is the start of a new season, and this side of the football can stifle the opposing offense. When healthy, this defense has played at an elite level. The secondary plays off of the pass rush provided by the front seven. The Steelers could be getting star wide receiver, Juju Smith-Schuster back from the injured reserve. According to All Steelers Fan Nation, head coach Mike Tomlin talked about the return of Smith-Schuster,

“He’s worked hard in rehabilitation and gotten himself to this point,” head coach Mike Tomlin said on Smith-Schuster’s return. “We simply started his 21-day window. … Good to have him out here, but it’s just part of the process.”

This would be a tremendous boost to morale for the Steelers, but also some internal motivation for the Chiefs. Smith-Schuster was an option in the off-season for Kansas City, and he elected to return to the steel city. Ben Roethlisberger seemed shocked and surprised his team made the playoffs. Even if the star wideout returns it sounds like it wont matter. Michael D’Arcy, a KC Kingdom contributor covered Big Ben’s comments in detail. According to Arrowhead Pride, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo responded to quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s comments saying,

“We certainly don’t look at it that way, there are 14 teams that make this tournament, and any team can beat any other teams — and the minute you don’t think that’s the case, that’s when you get knocked out… we’re not taking anything for granted, and hopefully we play that way; we certainly need the top of our game defensively to help our organization get on to the next week.”

There’s been a lot of noise this season… it’s time to make some of our own. We can’t do this alone, Chiefs Kingdom. Together, we are #OneTeamOneVision 🗣 pic.twitter.com/btLEYeojnt — Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 12, 2022

The First Test for the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs will need to play an all-around game, and this game against the Pittsburg Steelers is the first step in making the Super Bowl. Kansas City is looking to make another run at their fourth consecutive AFC Championship and third consecutive Super Bowl. This mindset going back-to-back-to-back has been many Chiefs’ fans dreams for years. This is not an easy road to the Super Bowl, and teams want to knock out the defending AFC champs. The game is scheduled for Sunday, December 16th, at 7:15 P.M. CT. This matchup will be aired on NBC.

Will Aaron Rodgers finally return to the Super Bowl?

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As the NFL playoffs begin, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are again ranked among the favorites. Will they be foiled once more?

It’s tempting to say the Packers have a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback, except they’ve had two of them, consecutively — Brett Favre being the other — and they won only one Super Bowl with each of them.

Will Rodgers win another one? He and the Packers haven’t returned to the Super Bowl since 2010, when they manhandled the Steelers. They lost in the conference championship game four times — 2014, 2016, 2019 and 2020.

At 38 years old, Rodgers is still on top of his game and should claim his fourth MVP trophy this season. He has the second highest career pass efficiency mark in history (No. 1 for anyone who has played longer than five seasons). He is perhaps the single-most talented quarterback ever — even more talented than Tom Brady — but he is not the most successful. He has gone 11 years without returning to the Super Bowl stage.

The popular notion is to blame Rodgers’ supporting cast for the team’s failure to win another title — the same thing fans and media tend to do when LeBron James strikes out — but the numbers don’t support it.

Rodgers has been a different quarterback in the big postseason games (let’s define “big” as the conference championship and Super Bowl). He has appeared in five conference championships and won one of them — the first one, in 2010. Rodgers’ performance in those games has rarely been even close to his performance in the regular season — his passer rating: 83.7 (the NFL average is 88.8).

Rodgers’ pass efficiency rating by the numbers 2010 Regular season: 101.2 NFC championship: 55.4 2014 Regular season: 112.2 NFC championship: 55.8 2016 Regular season: 104.2 NFC championship: 91.6 2019 Regular season: 95.4 NFC championship: 97.2 2020 Regular season: 121.5 NFC championship: 101.6

In five conference championship games he has thrown a total of nine touchdown passes and eight interceptions — this from a quarterback who hasn’t topped eight interceptions for an entire 16-game regular season for 11 years. He is one loss away from setting the record for most losses by a quarterback in the conference title game.

Donovan McNabb and Ken Stabler were also 1-4 in such games. Favre was 2-3, Joe Montana 4-3, Drew Brees 1-2, Dan Marino 1-2, Dan Fouts 0-2. (Steve Young is listed as having a 3-4 record in the NFC championship game, but he started only four of those games and won three of them.)

The postseason is a different animal than the regular season. It can crush some of the game’s best quarterbacks. Peyton Manning and John Elway are considered among the best quarterbacks of all time (it’s a complete mystery why Elway is rated so highly, as you’ll see), but they stumbled in the playoffs.

Elway, the most overrated quarterback this side of Joe Namath, threw 27 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions in 22 playoff games and had a passer rating of only 79.7 (his overall career rating was only 79.9). He was even worse in the five Super Bowls in which he played, throwing for a total of 1,128 yards, three touchdowns and eight interceptions, which added up to a pass efficiency rating of 59.3 (remember, an average rating is 88.8).

Peyton Manning produced similar results. He played in 27 playoff games (winning 14) and threw 40 touchdown passes and 25 interceptions for a passer rating of 87.4. In four Super Bowl appearances, he threw for a modest 1,001 yards, three touchdowns and five interceptions. He had a fine career passer rating of 96.5, but his Super Bowl rating was 77.4. He lost his first two Super Bowls and won the last two, thanks to defense and a running game.

Rodgers is surrounded by a strong team this season, as he was a year ago. The Packers boast two superb running backs, a great receiver, a stout offensive line and finally a strong defense. Is this the year he finally returns to the Super Bowl?

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Playoff Primer: Check out the Central Mass. players, coaches in the NFL fighting for a Super Bowl title

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Central Mass. will be well represented, on the field and on the sidelines, when the NFL playoffs get underway this weekend with six Super Wild Card games. Among the matchups is the Patriots’ third game of the season against their AFC East rival Bills. The teams split the regular-season meetings, with the Patriots running the ball 46 times during a 14-10 win on a windy night in Buffalo on December 6, and the Bills storming back for a 33-21 victory the day after Christmas at Gillette Stadium. The Raiders and Bengals kick off postseason action at 4:30 p.m. Saturday.

Jacques Cesaire

Buffalo Bills assistant defensive line coach

Cesaire, the former Gardner High star and San Diego Chargers defensive lineman, is in his second season on the Bills coaching staff and helped the Bills to their second straight AFC East title.

Under defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, the Bills had the NFL’s top total defense this season and ranked first in six other defensive categories. Buffalo’s run defense ranked 13th. The Patriots, Saturday night’s opponent, ran the ball 46 times for 222 yards in a Week 13 meeting.

Cesaire, who was undrafted out of Southern Connecticut State, played nine seasons for the Chargers. He retired in 2013. Inspired by his high school coach, Walt Dubzinski Jr., Cesaire got his first coaching job as the defensive coordinator at La Jolla Country Day School. He spent five season on the staff at the University of San Diego. Participating in the Bill Walsh NFL Minority Coaching Fellowship and interning with the Chargers and Carolina Panthers led Cesaire to pursue an NFL coaching position. The Bills hired him in February 2020.

Noah Gray

Kansas City Chiefs tight end

The rookie tight end has contributed to the Chiefs’ third-ranked total offense and fourth-ranked scoring offense with seven catches for 36 yards and a touchdown. He also plays special teams.

Gray, who starred at Leominster High and was a two-year starter at Duke, was a fifth-round draft pick of the Chiefs. He was the fifth player from Central Mass. drafted since 2017.

Gray scored his first NFL touchdown in a Week 10 win over the Raiders, catching a 1-yard throw from quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the third quarter.

In Week 16 against the Steelers, when Kansas City tight ends Travis Kelce and Blake Bell were sidelined, Gray made his first career start.

Steve Spagnuolo

Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator

The Grafton High hall of famer is in his third season as Kansas City’s defensive coordinator and helped the Chiefs win the Super Bowl in 2019.

The Chiefs, a Super Bowl favorite again, allowed 29 points per game during their 3-4 start to the 2021 season, but held five of their last 10 foes to 10 points or less, including the Steelers, their Sunday opponent, in a 36-10 win in Week 16.

“I had talks with the defensive unit about it when we were struggling,” Spagnuolo said in a recent press conference, “both as a team and defensive unit, and I just felt like the guys bought into that and embraced it and just kept grinding away.”

Spagnuolo, who broke into the NFL in 1999 with the Eagles under current Chiefs coach Andy Reid, had two stints as the New York Giants defensive coordinator, including in 2007-08. In Super Bowl XLII against the Patriots, his defense played a major role in spoiling New England’s perfect season.

Mark Duffner

Cincinnati Bengals senior defensive assistant

Duffner, who led Holy Cross to glory during his six seasons (1986-91) with the Crusaders, was on the Bengals staff from 1997-2002 and returned to Cincinnati’s coaching staff in 2019 as a senior defensive assistant.

Duffner’s NFL coaching career has spanned 25 years and has included stints with Tampa Bay, Miami, Jacksonville and Green Bay.

Duffner, who guided Holy Cross to a 60-5-1 record, entered the HC Varsity Club Hall of Fame in 2008.

Sean McKeon

Dallas Cowboys tight end

The former Shepherd Hill Regional star from Dudley began the 2021 season on injured reserve with a neck injury, but came back to play in 10 games and score his first career touchdown.

McKeon, who grew up in Dudley, was the Cowboys’ special teams captain for last week’s regular-season finale against the Eagles.

McKeon, who signed with the Cowboys last year as an undrafted free agent out of Michigan, made his first two NFL receptions in a Week 10 win over the Falcons and former high school teammate Chris Lindstrom, Atlanta’s starting right guard.

Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott hit McKeon with a 10-yard touchdown pass in Week 12 against the Raiders.

Isaac Yiadom

Green Bay Packers cornerback

As the NFC’s top seed, Green Bay earned a first-round playoff bye, so the Packers and Yiadom, the former Doherty High star from Worcester, won’t be in action until next week.

The Packers acquired Yiadom from the Giants in a preseason trade to add depth at the cornerback position. He has played in 16 games with one start and has made 10 tackles while also seeing time on special teams.

Originally a 2018 third-round pick of the Broncos out of Boston College, Yiadom played in 29 games over two seasons for Denver. In 2020, he started 10 of 16 games for the Giants and he established career highs in tackles and passes defensed.

Richard Rodgers

Philadelphia Eagles tight end

During his fourth season with the Eagles, Rodgers, a seventh-year pro, spent time on and off Philadelphia’s practice squad. He was active for last week’s regular-season finale against the Cowboys and caught two passes for 11 yards.

Rodgers, who was a standout at St. John’s High and topped the T&G’s Fantastic Fifty in 2020 as the best Central Mass. high school athlete of the past decade, starred at Cal and was originally a third-round draft pick of the Packers

He played four seasons in Green Bay and in 2015 had the most successful season of his career with 58 catches for 510 yards and eight touchdowns, including a much-heralded Hail Mary from quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Zach Triner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers long snapper

The former Assumption defensive lineman, who won a Super Bowl ring with the Bucs and Tom Brady last year, battled an early-season injury, but was back in action for Tampa Bay’s last eight games.

Triner suffered a finger injury in the Bucs’ season opener against Dallas.

Triner was Tampa Bay’s long snapper for all 32 games in the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

From 2012-14, Triner played in 25 games at Assumption. He spent time on the Green Bay practice squad in 2017 before finding a home in Tampa and making his first NFL start for the Bucs in the 2019 opener.

Contact Jennifer Toland at jennifer.toland@telegram.com. Follow her on Twitter @JenTolandTG.