Clay Holmes will be major force in New York Yankees’ bullpen in 2022

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Why didn’t the Yankees just sign Zack Wheeler if they almost traded for him?

Why didn’t the Yankees just sign Zack Wheeler if they almost traded for him? by Thomas Carannante

New York Yankees’ reliever Clay Holmes attended high school in Slocomb, Alabama, and was chosen by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the ninth round of the MLB draft in 2011. He turned down an offer to pitch for Auburn University and accepted a $1.2 million signing bonus from the Pirates.

Holmes played minor league ball for the Pirates between 2012-2018 but was interrupted by Tommy John surgery in 2014, which forced him to miss over a year.

Overall, his performance on the mound in the minor leagues was disappointing. He had trouble with his command and walked a lot of batters.

Holmes successfully recovered from his elbow operation and eventually made his major league debut in April 2018 against the Cincinnati Reds. In 2018, he threw 26.1 innings for the Pirates and produced a horrible 6.84 ERA, 7.2 K/9, and 7.9 BB/9. The following season he tossed 50 innings out of the bullpen and yielded somewhat similar results: 5.58 ERA, 10.1 K/9, and 6.5 BB/9. Then, due to a severe right forearm strain, Holmes threw only 1.1 innings during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Based on his poor performance in the minor and major leagues as well as his serious arm trouble in 2014 and 2020, we can assume that the Pirates did not think they had the next Trevor Hoffman waiting in the wings.

On July 26, 2021, the Pirates sent Holmes to the Yankees for minor league infielders Diego Castillo and Hoy Park. Holmes was an unknown reliever, and media sports outlets paid little attention to the deal. Most baseball analysts viewed the transaction as a matter of convenience for both teams more than anything else.

On the negative side, in a total of 119.2 innings over 91 games for the Pirates, the Alabama native recorded a 5.57 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 9.2 K/9, and a troublesome 6.3 BB/9. Unsurprisingly, these stats earned him a negative WAR.

A local genius tries to come up with an equation on how Clay Holmes is pitching in the major leagues and not coming up with a solution yet pic.twitter.com/ylKMPiLURN — askthedummy (@askthedummy) July 23, 2019

However, on the positive side, Holmes (sans facial hair) came with a team-friendly terms. He’s under club control until 2025. Holmes was a low-cost, low-risk acquisition for the Bronx Bombers in return for some needed roster breathing space before heading into the offseason.

Okay, that makes sense. But can fans get on board with that?

Ugh, another awful trade for the Yankees? Haven’t we heard this story before?

In the beginning, manager Aaron Boone had Holmes pitching in non-pressure spots to determine what he had and how he might be used coming out of the bullpen. We can assume that the Yankee skipper did not expect much at the time, given his poor track record with the Pirates. However, Holmes pitched effectively in his new pinstripes uniform early on for New York, which no doubt surprised Boone and the Yankee suits.

After earning Boone’s trust, Holmes began to be slotted into competitive contests and tightrope situations. Exhibiting great poise and self-confidence on the mound, the man from Alabama immediately began punching out premier major league batters in relief as the contending Bombers started revving up their run for the playoffs. Boone and GM Brian Cashman must have been asking themselves, “Holy s–t, who is this guy?”

So, how good was Holmes in 2021? He was impressive. The right-hander pitched in 25 games and logged 28 innings for the Yanks. He posted a knock-your-sox off 1.61 ERA, 2.10 FIP, 10.9 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, and a 1.3 WAR. He also pitched two scoreless innings in the elimination game won by the Boston Red Sox, whiffing one batter and relinquishing just one hit.

An in-depth analysis of Holmes’ pitching performance reveals why he was so successful for his new team. Drilling down, data recorded via Baseball Savant show that he produces a great deal of soft contact. His sinker, curveball, and slider have remarkable vertical movement and surpass MLB averages.

Needless to say, batters have difficulty getting the ball in the air against Holmes. He generated a solid groundball rate of 61.5% pitching for the Bombers.

Holmes had substantial control problems and walked many batters as a hurler for the Pirates. Yet, he significantly improved the command of his power sinker throwing for the Yanks and walked much fewer batters per inning with his new club. In addition to his ability to induce soft contact and keep the ball on the ground, the righty’s newfound ability to consistently place his pitches in the strike zone explains his surprising success with the Yanks.

Clay Holmes pitching like he deserves Gerrit Cole’s money #yankees — Tom Clark (@TomClark20) October 6, 2021

Ha! Eat your heart out Yankee critics and naysayers! Everyone (including us) was wrong about Holmes. Despite his terrible record with the Pirates, his Britton-like, high-velocity power sinker (about 95-96 MPH) immediately made the trade look one-sided. Maybe the Yanks’ front office thought he had the potential to be a solid reliever all along, or perhaps the Yankee brass was just plain lucky. It really doesn’t matter.

Should Yankee fans feel bad for the Pirates? We don’t think so.

Contrary to their name, the Pirates have become everyone’s trading partner of choice in recent years. The organization has earned a reputation for being easy to pickpocket due to the club’s willingness to give up potential stars since they’re perpetually rebuilding.

The Tampa Bay Rays and other MLB teams have raided the Pirates’ ship a few times, and most clubs have come away with players who eventually became stars without giving up personnel of equal value (e.g. Gerrit Cole to the Houston Astros and Tyler Glasnow to the Rays).

Holmes turned out to be a genuine diamond in the rough in a season where several players on the Yankees roster significantly underperformed and were major disappointments (e.g. Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks, and Gleyber Torres). Acquiring Holmes was highway robbery in broad daylight.

Admittedly, Holmes only pitched 28 innings after joining the Yanks. It would be reasonable for Boone and cautious Yankee fans to wonder whether his newfound success with the team will carry over into 2022 and beyond. Who knows, maybe he will turn out to be another Adam Ottavino and not another Zack Britton? OK, fair enough.

However, our gut feeling is that Holmes has had enough time to demonstrate how good he is, and we feel that the Yanks have found another bullpen ace under pitching coach Matt Blake’s guidance. We believe that his only one or two shaky appearances in relief in 2021 for the Bombers likely occurred as a result of being overworked by Boone. Thus, there’s ample reason to be optimistic and expect Holmes to be a dominant force in the Yankees’ bullpen in 2022.

Hey Yankee fans, don’t feel bad for the lowly Pirates. They are used to giving away terrific ballplayers in return for nobody. And true to form, this is likely the case with Holmes assuming that he continues his excellent pitching for the Bombers. Given how much bad karma the Yanks have recently endured, they deserve some good fortune moving forward.

Around the Empire: Yankees news - 1/17/22

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Listín Diario | Pedro Briceño: Roderick Arias is a happy young man. Considered perhaps the best international prospect available when the signing period started on Saturday, the Yankees gave him $4 million to secure his signature. His dedication and perseverance since he was a child has paid off, but he still has a long way to go before he fulfills his potential.

“Ever since I got here, I worked very hard until I reached my goal, and it has been worth it so far”, Arias said to Listín Diario, a Dominican paper, before signing his contract.

This article, in Spanish, has some details about his origins, and the moment when he, as an 11-year-old kid, went to Baseball Paulino Academy, owned by Daniel Paulino, and fell in love with his complex in San Pedro de Macorís.

Speaking of Paulino, he thinks young Roderick can be in the same class as fellow Latin shortstops Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor. “This guy isn’t afraid to put in the hard work, and he owns so many qualities that instructors didn’t hesitate much when they saw him,” he said.

NJ Advance Media | Brendan Kuty: The Yankees have lots and lots of quality prospects, but some of them have been around for a long time, and results have been mixed: for one reason or another, they haven’t been able to take that next step in their development.

Deivi García had a rough 2021 season after a rather promising 2020. Clarke Schmidt lost most of the year with elbow issues, and Estevan Florial needs to prove he can make enough contact to not be a liability at the plate. Those are, per NJ Advance Media, the three Yankees prospects with the most to prove in 2022.

MLB Trade Rumors | Darragh McDonald Lots of teams will follow Kris Bryant’s market closely once the lockout is lifted. The Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros, and San Francisco Giants have shown varying degrees of interest in the former MVP and World Series champion.

While the Yankees’ primary need is a shortstop, there is a non-zero chance they consider Bryant to play third base, first base, and even some left field. MLB Trade Rumors puts the Bombers in the “speculative fits” category, and writes:

MLB rumors: Yankees could sign ex-NL MVP if Brian Cashman pulls off pair of trades

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Never say never.

New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman is expected to wheel and deal following the MLB lockout.

And while third base isn’t Cashman’s top priority, MLB Trade Rumors pitched a scenario which has the Yankees landing slugger Kris Bryant.

DJ LeMahieu is the best fit for third base duties at the moment, though he could also defer to Bryant and move over to first base, especially if the club pulls the trigger on a Luke Voit trade. Like the Blue Jays and Red Sox, the Yankees were also connected to Seiya Suzuki, suggesting they could also find a way to work Bryant into the outfield mix, perhaps in combination with a Joey Gallo trade.

The 30-year-old Bryant split the 2021 season between the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants, hitting a combined .265 with 25 home runs in 144 games.

A four-time All-Star, Bryant was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2015 and the National League MVP win 2016, helping the Cubs win their first World Series title in 108 years.

But incorporating Bryant into the Yankees lineup isn’t as easy as it sounds. The New York Post’s Dan Martin reports “The Yankees remain averse to moving LeMahieu full-time to third base, where Gio Urshela is currently situated. General manager Brian Cashman also has said repeatedly they didn’t sign LeMahieu to be an everyday first baseman.”

LeMahieu struggled last season, hitting .268 in 150 games. But Martin reports “Most within the organization are confident LeMahieu, 33, will return to form in 2022 after undergoing surgery to repair the sports hernia that bothered him for the latter part of last season.”

Another reason the Yankees may pass on Bryant? Cashman’s top offseason priority at this point is to find a shortstop, which remains vacant with Gleyber Torres locked in at second base.

Yankees look to mirror Lucas Luetge success in Jimmy Cordero

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Just because teams can’t make moves with players who are on a 40-man roster doesn’t mean they can’t still make significant additions.

Last offseason, the Yankees signed Lucas Luetge to a minor league deal, and the left-hander ended up winning a job in spring training on his way to becoming a reliable arm in the bullpen.

And in this slow MLB lockout offseason, the Yankees have again taken some chances on potential bullpen depth.

Perhaps the most intriguing signing so far has been Jimmy Cordero, a 30-year-old right-hander who was most recently with the White Sox.

Cordero underwent Tommy John surgery last March and is expected back by midseason this year. He’s shown promising signs in the past, mostly in 2019, when he had a 0.972 WHIP in 36 innings over 30 appearances with Chicago.

But he faltered badly in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, with a 1.575 WHIP and a 6.08 ERA in 26 ²/₃ innings with the White Sox. After struggling last spring, Cordero underwent elbow surgery that sidelined him all season, but he should be healthy by June or so.

Jimmy Cordero should return from elbow surgery by midseason. AP

If that proves to be the case, he has featured a sinker that’s been effective, and the Yankees have had success with relievers that use that pitch well.

In addition to the little-heralded signing of Luetge last offseason, the Yankees also made small trades that ended up paying dividends in their bullpen last year, sending Mike Tauchman to the Giants in exchange for lefty Wandy Peralta and also shipping two minor leaguers to the Pirates in the deal that brought right-hander Clay Holmes to The Bronx.

And Joely Rodriguez, part of the Joey Gallo deal with Texas, also pitched well in relief for the Yankees.

Luetge hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2015 but spent the entire season in the majors last year, pitching 72 ¹/₃ innings in 57 games with a solid 1.134 WHIP. Peralta pitched better with the Yankees than he did with the Giants, as did Rodriguez following his arrival from Texas, thanks to improved command.

No one had a more drastic turnaround than Holmes, who had a WHIP of 1.429 in 44 appearances with the Pirates before his trade and a 0.786 in 25 games with the Yankees — also due to an ability to vastly reduce his number of walks.

Lucas Luetge Robert Sabo

They’ll look for a similar improvement from Cordero — who has pitched for five organizations over the last nine seasons — at some point in 2022 and also took a flier on right-hander Ryan Weber.

Weber, 31, has pitched poorly for most of his seven major league seasons.

Of course, the Yankees aren’t just planning on having depth in the bullpen.

They’ll need Aroldis Chapman to bounce back from the worst season of his career, and Zack Britton could be gone for the entire year after undergoing elbow surgery.

Jonathan Loaisiga emerged as a dominant right-hander, and they still have Chad Green. Michael King pitched well as a reliever, and if they add a starter, Nestor Cortes Jr. could move to a swing role, making spot starts and pitching out of the pen.

MLB insider has wild lineup proposal for Yankees and Joey Gallo

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 21: Joey Gallo #13 of the New York Yankees reacts after striking out during the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers at Yankee Stadium on September 21, 2021 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)

Of the many triggering subjects for New York Yankees fans, the trade deadline decision to bring Joey Gallo to the Bronx is certainly up there.

Though the Yankees traded a number of prospects that may possess high ceilings to acquire the lefty slugger, the favor wasn’t returned. Gallo was more of a detriment than anything during the second half of the season, evidenced by his lackluster defense in left field as well as his .160 average with just 13 homers and 22 RBI in 58 games — eons worse than his first half in Texas.

The only positive about Gallo’s play at the plate was that his on-base percentage was 143 points higher than his average, indicating he was still able somewhat strike fear into opposing pitchers and work walks. He led the league in that category, after all, with 111 free passes on the season.

But is that enough to justify this latest suggestion from ESPN insider Buster Olney? We’re just not sure many fans would endorse this.

In his ESPN+ column (subscription required), Olney suggested having the Yankees bat Gallo leadoff in 2022 and “encourage him to just do what he does best, which is to get on base.”

Yet another move that would displace DJ LeMahieu (Gleyber Torres’ position switch did so on the defensive end) because of the team’s poor decision making. Then again, taking Gallo out of a position where he needs to drive in runs wouldn’t be the worst thing ever.

Interesting take on Joey Gallo from ESPN’s Buster Olney… Olney wrote that the #Yankees should consider hitting Gallo in the leadoff spot in 2022, encouraging him to focus on getting on base. (From @Buster_ESPN’s offseason top 10s over on ESPN+) pic.twitter.com/5esYK83s82 — Max Goodman (@MaxTGoodman) January 13, 2022

How should Yankees fans feel about batting Joey Gallo leadoff in 2022?

Gallo hit just .162 with runners in scoring position last year, and his OBP in such scenarios doesn’t matter because walks don’t score runs unless the bases are loaded. More than HALF (20!) of Gallo’s 2021 homers were solo shots. Only 38 of his 99 RBI came with runners in scoring position. All of these stats seem impossible, which does lend credence to this take.

Perhaps the Yankees will also try giving him some reps in center field, the next position he’s most effective outside of right field? Sorry, that’s an entirely different discussion.

As for his offense, again, walks are great, but what makes us think Gallo will be once again that prolific in the category as he was in 2021? Before his league-leading mark of 111, his next highest total was 75 back in 2017.While Gallo logged a career-high 153 games this past season, here are his other walk percentages from 2017, 2018 and 2020 (when he was mostly healthy during full campaigns):

2017: 14.1%

2018: 12.8%

2020: 12.8%

2021: 18%

See the clear outlier? His 2021 walk rate was 3.9% higher than his next best mark, which leads us to believe we won’t see that number escalate in 2022, and will instead see a regression toward the mean. Pardon us, but we’d rather have one of the best power hitters in the game … making more contact?

Call us crazy, but batting Gallo leadoff would signal yet another failure by the front office by acquiring a square peg and trying to fit it in a round hole. Joey Gallo has a career home run percentage of 6.6%, a hard-hit percentage of 52%, and a career batting average of .206.

That’s not a leadoff hitter. Never was, never will be. If he can’t hit the ball in the middle of this lineup, protected by so many big bats, then there just might not be a role for him at all.